North East Insurgency at crossroads ?

Indian government has been actively pursuing multi-pronged strategy to contain insurgency and separatism in North East India for long and finally, it seems to be bearing fruit. Indian government has engaged Military Junta of Myanmar, covertly helped new Bangldesh India friendly government, impressed upon Bhutan to act against North Eastern insurgents. All seem to be working.

Recent announcements by both Bhutan government and Myanmar government about not allowing its soil to use militant activities against India has been testimony to it. Bangladesh had almost completely dismantled ULFA infrastructure and arrested its top leaders.

So, except China, India has finally got full commitment from other countries neighboring North East India to act against insurgents of North East India.

Traditionally, North Eastern insurgents have been getting arms training in inhospitable jungles of Indo-Myanmar borders which have no roads or almost independent of government control. But recently, India has been funding massively to Myanmar government to construct roads which would be used to send troops to flush out NE insurgents in those areas!

Though, Myanmar Army is also busy fighting its own insurgents, with help from Indian side in terms of building roads and intelligence sharing, it will be able to put pressure of Indian insurgent groups.

In such situation, it seems almost certain that insurgency in North East India would die in near future. it would be now interesting, how North Eastern insurgents would survive for long if they manage to. China has been Myanmars closest ally for long, but recently Myanmar has opened up to India as well as western world to much discomfort of China. There is also a report of cancelling US$3bn worth of hydel power project awarded to Chinese firm by Myanmar government. So, Paresh Barua of ULFA is trying to get safe heaven in China. News reports indicates that, Paresh BArua is already in China.

Though, insurgents of North East India have bases in Myanmar, Bangladesh, it is mostly home grown unlike that of Kashmir. So, even if insurgency dies out in North East India without much needed oxygen in form of bases outside India, the sense of alienation, sense of being minority in its own homeland by people of North East India would remain.

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