Can BJP increase their tally in Assam in 2011 Assembly election ?

Recently, BJP ( Bharatiya Janata Party ) is seen to be quite active in Assam and they are holding their national executive meeting in Guwahati for two days. Varun Gandhi has been in charge of Assam election in 2011 and he has visited Assam and attended many public meetings.

BJP had also conducted protest rally at Gerukamukh protesting against building big dams in Arunachal Pradesh and demanded halting of Lower Subansiri Hydro Power project. The rally was attended by former BJP Chief Rajnath Singh along with other state BJP leaders. They have also petitioned election commission to delete illegal Bangladeshi immigrants from electoral rolls in Assam.

In the previous Assembly election, BJP won 10 assembly seats and 11% of the total votes. They contested in 125 seats. They did not have tie up with AGP ( Asom Gana Parishad ) in the election while they had tie up with AGP during 2008 General Loksabha Election. BJP won 4 seats while AGP won 2.

BJP is strong in Barak Valley where it won maximum number of assembly seats in the past. BJP is seen to be a party for business people as well as town and city people. But recently BJP has become a force to reckon in Brahmaputra valley too. And they are now making right noises about illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, Big dams in Arunachal Pradesh and Corruption in ruling Congress Government.

Most probably, Bangladeshi Illegal immigrants is a most exploited poll plank in Assam on which AGP was formed and cme to power in 1985. But today’s Assam is quite different than Assam in 1985.

Assam and North East India as a whole has been secular and religion is never a priority here. But BJP is considered a Hindu dominated party in Assam. But many Hindi speaking as well Bengali speaking people are expected to vote for BJP. Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, a young BJP leader from tea tribe community is expected to bring in votes which may help increase Assembly tally for BJP in Brahmaputra Valley.

Most probably, in this election BJP will be able to better their tally and win few seats in urban areas. They should also improve their tally from Barak valley this year as Congress is facing anti-incumbency factor and BJP is a strong alternative there. Many young and online generation seem to favour BJP.

Many people are gathering in meetings organised by Varun Gandhi, but it is difficult to say if these gatherings would covert to votes. But in a fractured assembly, BJPs 15 odd MLAs could play a crucial role in forming government and most probably, that is what BJP leadership is hoping.

Many people think that, BJP and AGP may form alliance after polls if they could muster the number to form government.

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